归档： Publications

MARKET INSIGHT – April 2020

Disruption reigns supreme on the markets

What remains to be written about March 2020, which will no doubt go down in the annals of economics and finance?
The plunge of asset prices says it all: frightened by the spread of Covid-19 and the ensuing economic uncertainty, investors have given way to panic. The ability of price mechanisms to…

MARKET INSIGHT – March 2020

Fear returns to the markets with a vengeance – as panic

At first, market participants were reassured by mounting evidence that the epidemic was being brought under control in China and this drove risk assets to new highs. Then fears intensified when it was confirmed that the virus had spread to other regions, especially Europe, leading to a sharp fall in stock markets and a retreat to the most secure assets, bonds in particular.

If we take a closer look at market behaviour since mid-January…

MARKET INSIGHT – February 2020

Does excessive anxiety stiffle fear? Part II

Last month we examined fear, the mechanisms that feed it and its impact on the financial markets. Given the friction between Tehran and
the United States and the new coronavirus outbreak in China, January gave us much food for thought in this regard. The desire professed by both Iran and Washington to limit the threat of escalation seems to have led investors to…

MARKET INSIGHT – December 2019

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst

The 2019 equity rally has been described as one of the least popular in history. And this comes as no surprise when we consider how hard it was for investors to make gains. To see the truth in this, we need only cast our minds back to the pessimism about the future of the stock markets prevailing at the end of last year. Few investors at that point thought that…

MARKET INSIGHT – November 2019

On the quetzal and mariachi trail!

We are all prey to compulsive and obsessive thoughts. Personally, I tend to be overcome by a sense of dread when I am out of the office (for too long). My completely illogical fear – which I just can’t get out of my head – is that the markets will go into meltdown while I’m away. A recent business trip to Guatemala and Mexico City was no exception to the rule, especially since the performance of financial assets…

MARKET INSIGHT – October 2019

Central bankers have done their job. What next?

Whether coordinated or uncoordinated, central banks took stronger action in September. This was due to an uncertain economic cycle, tooweak inflation despite low unemployment rates and strong trade frictions.

The attacks on oil sites in Saudi Arabia came too late in the month to influence

MARKET INSIGHT – September 2019

Heatwave and summer storms spread to the financial markets

The resurgence in volatility and a consolidation in the equity markets over the summer proved our approach to be the right one. This was firstly the case because we faced the…

MARKET INSIGHT – July 2019

Gone with the wind

At the end of a hectic May for the global financial markets, one could justifiably conclude that investors had grown more averse to risk, in the wake of growing economic uncertainty and unabating geopolitical tensions. In the past few months, we’ve been wary of market player sentiment – which tends to…